In conditions of the development of the pandemic in the world, the fall in energy prices, and the volumes of consumer imports in the country, the demand for currency in November should not significantly grow.
Also, the National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a surplus of the consolidated account of the balance of payments at the level of 3% of GDP by the end of the year. However, it is expected that already in 2021, the revival of the economy will stimulate imports, energy carriers will rise in price, Ukraine will receive less from gas transit. All these factors will lead to a deficit of the balance of payments from next year.
The sale of foreign currency earnings by farmers on the interbank foreign exchange market will continue; demand for the national currency for the repayment of tax payments is probable.
In November 2020, I expect fluctuations of the hryvnia exchange rate in the corridor of UAH 28.10 - 28.40 per US dollar.
The euro, like world capital, is awaiting a period of increased volatility after the US Presidential elections.
Herman Marchenko, Director of the Treasury Department of CIB
