In October, most likely, the «soft» devaluation of the national currency will continue. The cash US dollar rate will depend on the situation on the interbank foreign exchange market. Seasonal factors will exert pressure on the hryvnia; however, intentions of the National Bank to restrain the growth of the US dollar against the hryvnia can be traced. I assume that during October 2020, the national currency will be in the corridor of UAH 28.20-28.45 per US dollar.
Also, in October, pressure on the national currency will continue due to the revival of business, including consumer imports and the general recovery of the economy. The main driver of economic growth — is the deferred consumer demand of the public. In addition, non-residents will continue to exit Ukrainian IGBs, creating additional load on the national currency.
Traditionally, increased volatility on the foreign exchange market is expected in the period immediately before and after local elections in Ukraine.
In connection with the US presidential elections and the introduction of new monetary stimulus measures by the US Fed, increased volatility of the euro/dollar exchange rate is expected on the world Forex market.
Herman Marchenko,
Director of the Treasury Department of JSC «CIB»
